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Substantially, the weak October retail sales figures followed Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Report, which signified a sharp pullback in personal intake. The report highlighted toppling earnings expectations and increasing customers’ determination to conserve, driven by issues about a weaker labor market.
The current retail sales and customer belief figures paint a gloomier photo of the German economy.
Effect On ECB Monetary Policy
The sharp decrease in retail sales and prospective for steeper falls in November might sustain speculation about a 50-basis point December ECB rate cut. Weakening customer costs might moisten demand-driven inflation, supporting a more dovish ECB rate course.
November’s German inflation figures might temper expectations for a 50-basis point December rate cut. The yearly inflation rate increased from 2.0% in October to 2.2% in November, surpassing the ECB’s 2% target. This might empower the hawks to fight require a 50-bps rate cut in spite of weak economic sector PMIs, retail sales, and customer belief figures.
The combined signals will put higher focus on the Eurozone’s inflation information.