When a Crystal Ball Isn’t Enough to Make You Rich– Elm Partners
By Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell "1Projected reading time: 10 minutes.
Intro: Back to the Future
In the 1989 hit Back to the Future IItime travel allows Michael J. Fox's bane, Biff, to end up being a gazillionaire by bringing an almanac with sports match results back from the future. We believed it may be instructional, and definitely amusing, to make a less fanciful variation of this dream a truth-- for a couple of fortunate individuals.
In November 2023, we ran an in-person, proctored experiment including 118 young people trained in financing. We called the experiment "The Crystal Ball Challenge." We offered each individual $50 and the chance to grow that stake by trading in the S&P 500 index and 30-year United States Treasury bonds with the info on the front page of the Wal...