Eight Republican candidates participated in the party’s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month.
Joshua Lott / The Washington Post via Getty Images
The second Republican presidential primary debate is less than two weeks away, so time is running out for GOP contenders to meet the Republican National Committee’s qualification criteria. To make the Sept. 27 debate, each candidate must have at least 3 percent support in two qualifying national polls, or at least 3 percent in one national survey and that same figure in polls from two different early voting states,1 conducted since Aug. 1. Each candidate must also provide evidence of having attained at least 50,000 unique donors to their campaign.2 And if they have the polls and donors, candidates will once again have to sign a pledge to support the party’s eventual 2024 nominee if they want to participate.
As things stand, there’s a decent chance that fewer candidates will qualify than the eight who attended the party’s first gathering in August. Six of that octet appear to have the donors and polls to make the second debate, and each signed the RNC’s pledge for the first debate, so there’s no reason to think they won’t sign again. However, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson may have trouble qualifying again under the higher September thresholds for polls and donors. And having skipped the first debate despite easily qualifying for it — save signing the RNC’s pledge — former President Donald Trump looks set to eschew the second debate, too.
At least six candidates look set to make the second GOP debate
Republican presidential candidates by whether and how they have qualified for the second primary debate and if they signed the first debate pledge, as of 4:30 p.m. Eastern on Sept. 13, 2023
Candidate Polls Donors Signed 1st Debate Pledge Ron DeSantis вÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Vivek Ramaswamy вÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Nikki Haley вÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Mike Pence вÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Chris Christie вÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Tim Scott вÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Donald Trump вÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Doug Burgum вÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Ð²ÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Asa Hutchinson вÑÐÑâÐÐÐÑ Will Hurd
FiveThirtyEight’s analysis found that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy had at least 3 percent support in every qualifying survey (Trump did as well). Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie met that mark in nearly every survey, while South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott got there in about three-fourths of them. And none of these six candidates showed any sign of difficulty when it came to reaching the 50,000 donor mark. Even Pence’s campaign, which had a harder time attracting donors than most, announced in mid-August that it had enough unique contributors to qualify for the second debate.
With 11 days to go until the Sept. 25 qualification deadline, the polling threshold rising to 3 percent from 1 percent appears to be the main obstacle for the candidates who haven’t qualified.
